A modified variable‐order fractional SIR model to predict the spread of COVID‐19 in India

The first case of COVID-19 in India detected on January 30, 2020, after its emergence Wuhan, China, December 2019. lockdown was imposed as anemergency measure by the Indian government to prevent spread but gradually eased out due vast economic consequences. Just 15 days relaxation restrictions, Delhi became India's worst city terms cases. In this paper, we propose a variable-order fractional SIR (susceptible, infected, removed) model at state-level scale. We introduce algorithm that uses differential evolution combination with Adam–Bashforth–Moulton method learn parameters system model. can predict confirm cases considering effects nationwide and possible estimate number infliction inactive removal June 1, 2020. A new parameter p is introduced classical representing fraction infected people get tested are thereby quarantined. trajectory Delhi, per our model, predicts slowing down between February 2021, touching peak around 5 lakh confirmed